Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. For some, this holiday is about reconnecting with loved ones and enjoying pumpkin pie. For others, it’s putting a happy face on the groomsmen while glued to the TV and the other eye on your Caesar Sportsbook app. Like it or not, Thanksgiving is turning into an NFL gambling holiday, like Super Bowl. It’s a special day where you can take in three games and add some monetary excitement to what was supposed to be a special day.
Chicago Bears–Detroit Lion, Dallas Cowboys–Las Vegas Raiders And after that Buffalo Bills–New Orleans Saints sleeping cap. It must have been a fun day, and between the spread, Over/Under and player props, there are plenty of opportunities to turn your Thanksgiving into a lucrative one. Let’s take a look at some of the bets we have.
All of NFL Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Chicago Bears -3
The first game this holiday season involves midfield pairings, like Andy Dalton will start instead Justin Fields after the rookie suffered a rib injury, while the Lions sounds like they are ready to come back Jared Goff into the starting line-up after he missed the previous game. While Fields is the future and a young player with an extremely high ceiling, Dalton really dominates in a number of statistical categories when he is on the field. According to TruMedia, with Dalton below center, the average Bears are adding 0.5 yards per play, 0.7 yards more per dash, sack ratio down from 16 to 7 and Dalton is also converting 12% more. third shot.
These two teams met in Week 4, when the Bears scored a 24-14 victory. Chicago relies on the running game, and hit 188 yards on 39 shots – the fastest yards in a game all season for the Bears. It’s fair to expect this could be the game plan here again in Week 12, but Chicago will also have to prepare for the return of the Lion’s star. D’Andre Swift hurled more than 130 yards in each of the last two competitions, and could hurt the defense on return.
The total is too low at 41.5 so I won’t touch it or take a top player. This is a contagion that I also won’t touch. I’m leaning towards the favorites in Chicago as the Bears are a 4-1 ATS against a losing record, but with the quarterback changes I’m not betting the house on this game.
Guess: Bear (-3) 24-20 more than Lion
A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting guide
David Montgomery Total javelin yards: Over 77.5 (-115). Detroit has one of the worst defenses in the world NFL, averaging 140.5 yards per game on the ground. Those numbers are even worse when you look at the Lions’ last three games (188.3 yards of javelin per game). This helped Montgomery have a breakthrough performance since returning from the injury reserve.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Dallas Cowboys -7.5
Cowboys are deflation, lost 9-9 first Chief of Kansas City last week, but returned home on vacation – where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Arlington. We may not have a conflict over how the Cowboys are a legitimate contender at this point in the season, but they still appear to be one of the better teams in NFC. They should be able to beat a Raiders club reeling on Thanksgiving.
Derek Carr’s the team has been through a lot this season with Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III sagas. While the Raiders enjoyed a three-game winning streak following Gruden’s departure, Vegas has now lost double digits in a row. You would think that this Cowboys offense might come across and detract from some seriousness for the Raiders, but Dallas’ offense stats haven’t been as much over the past few weeks, and Dak Prescott there won’t be Amari Cooper and potentially CeeDee Lamb.
I lean towards the Cowboys, but I would consider buying a full point. I think my strategy would be to buy down the Cowboys and put them in an in-game par with a few other alternate player’s props. I also lean in the Under, as the Under is 4-0 in the last four Cowboys games.
Guess: Cowboys (-7.5) 30-21 vs Raiders
A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting guide
Dalton Schultz total score received: Over 49.5 (-120). With Cooper and possibly Lamb out of this game, their goals will need to go somewhere and Schultz is third on the team in terms of goals for the season. He also has a strong run against the Raiders, who are allowing the opposition to close tight with an average of 66+ receptions per game over about 10.6 yards per reception.
Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Buffalo Bills -6.5
The bills were blown away by Indianapolis Colts 41-15 on Sunday, but midfielder Josh Allen say they are lucky to play for a short week so that they can quickly turn their attention to another competitor. The Saints are having a hard time right now, as Sean Payton may need to re-visit from scratch Trevor Siemian. To solve midfield problems, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram wounded, as well as several members of the line of attack.
While I’m not optimistic about the price difference in the first two games over Thanksgiving, I’m still chasing this match. Bills -6 is one of the my top five picks of the week. According to TruMedia, the Saints have lined up in men’s coverage on 36% of their defenses this season, which is the sixth-highest percentage in the NFL. Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks compared to the man’s coverage this season, as he has a 63% completion rate (ninth-highest of the 34 qualifying midfielders), 7, 7 yards per pass (ranked 10th among qualified midfielders) and has thrown eight touchdowns against human coverage (ranked seventh among qualified midfielders).
Guess: Invoice (-6) 28-20
Support from Tyler Sullivan’s Betting Guide
Devin Singletary Total javelin yards: Over 24.5 (-115). Singletary is averaging nearly double this backing this season and has surpassed this tally in eight of his 10 games he has played this season. The Saints also only allow two different backs (and Jalen Hurts) to cross over 60 yards last week.
Bet in favor of Thanksgiving special
Most yards passed on Turkey Day
Dak Prescott +220
Josh Allen +220
Derek Carr +260
Trevor Siemian +1200
Andy Dalton +1200
Tim Boyle +1400
I love these Thanksgiving specials and this is pretty cool. I don’t expect any kind of wild upset here, as the winner has to be in that top three. I can sprinkle Allen and Carr, and root one of them to appear on top.
Peak beach in the most Turkish Day
David Montgomery +350
Alvin Kamara +350
Mark Ingram +400
Ezekiel Elliott +425
D’Andre Swift +450
Josh Jacobs +550
Tony Pollard +600
I think Elliott or Swift have a good chance of winning this bet.
Top scoring team on Thursday
Dallas Cowboys +160
Buffalo Bills +300
Las Vegas Raiders +600
Chicago Bears +700
New Orleans Saints +750
Detroit Lion +1200
Like I said above, I’m pretty confident in the Bills. I think they are also getting a good value here of +300.
first. Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving yards: Above 32.5 (-115). St. Brown is one of the more underrated rookies in this class because he plays for a team that doesn’t win, but he’s picked up at least 46 yards in each of his last two games with Goff.
2. Daniel Carlson Over 1.5 goals scored (+130). Carlson has scored at least two goals in four of the past five games. Harrison Butker made two games against the Cowboys last week and Brandon McManus afterward Dancer broncos made three games against Dallas a couple of weeks ago. I like that we’re getting plus money here.
3. Josh Allen Over 1.5 touches (-170). It’s definitely juicy, but throw it in an even match if you want to.
Props for selling lottery tickets
1. David Montgomery scores two or more touches (+300). Montgomery rushed in for two touchdowns the last time he played in Detroit.
2. Ezekiel Elliott’s first touchdown scorer (+460). Elliott already has some solid Thanksgiving games and will likely be lining up for another this year.
3. Last scorer: Josh Allen (+900). It’s possible that a rush of Allen’s groundwork late in the game puts this out of reach.